hello friends

It has been months since I last wrote, wrapping up 2022 with nothing much new to say, and I still feel similarly a third of the way into 2023. I’m not sure if it comes with age, complacency, stagnation… I often find that I have less to say publicly. Every thought feels more repetitive, less profound. Lessons feel more private and internalized. What I want to share into the abyss feels fewer and far between. In truth, I have begun to wonder if I’ve outgrown this space on the internet. What started as a place to feel connected to people in ways I wasn’t finding in my personal life no longer feels as necessary. My Squarespace renewal date is in October, so I will try to keep things alive until then and see how I feel.

In terms of updates, 2023 has already been full of excitement in various ways. We bought a place in March and have spent many hours packing and unpacking, building a home together. While the process was stressful, it has been somewhat of a wondrous experience and one I will cherish. Despite the chaos, I’ve still been spending significant and consistent time skateboarding. What started as a desire to cruise around on pavement has developed into a somewhat obsessive goal around doing tricks and fulfilling childhood dreams. I spend an embarrassing amount of time learning physics of tricks, watching and re-watching tutorials, and figuring out my exact preferences on boards and shoes. The progress has been excruciatingly slow, as to be expected, but the little victories are worthwhile. I feel my balance improving, and the confrontation of fear and trying to do something out of my comfort zone every day, no matter how small, is surprisingly fulfilling. Our new proximity to a variety of parking lots has meant that I’ve been re-designing the electric mini velo bike into a skate-mobile. I’ve tested out some racks and I’m still working through some design challenges between carrying capacity and ergonomics, but I’m excited to iterate on what will functionally be my “car” since we’re living in closer proximity to family, grocery stores, the library, and most of what I need to access on a daily basis.

Learning Japanese, like skateboarding, has provided a sense of satisfaction at incremental improvement. I’ve been learning nearly a year now, and although I am far from even conversationally fluent, it is satisfying to be able to listen to Japanese and have a vague sense of what the conversation about. With our trip to Japan two weeks away, I am eager to put my amateur skills to use, but also nervous that I won’t be able to communicate as much as I would like. Nearly four years into COVID, I’m somewhat anxiously anticipating upcoming international travel. It seems like literally everyone is going to Japan this year, and while I am excited to visit a place I’ve wanted to go since I was a kid, it will be quite the adjustment from the quiet and solitude of WFH suburban life. It’ll be the longest time off work I’ve taken since I quit my job in Boston and VIA Rail’d across Canada in 2018. Hopefully, I will have lots of film photos to share after the trip, although they may resemble the same film photos that every #analogue photographer has taken in Japan this year. Until then.

wearing things, part ii /

I’ve returned this website to dark mode. I was reading a book about sustainable web design and realized that albeit small (relatively), certain decisions can make a big difference in terms of climate impact. Inverting my website colors is a very, very tiny act in the grand scheme of things, but still matters in terms of intention.

Intention is something that I’ve been thinking about a lot lately. Intention in communication, intention in time, intention in decisions, intention in design. Intention can really be applied to anything.

The intention of my blog is a transparent space where I share my reflections on a wide variety of different topics, for whoever wants to engage with it.

As reflected in my last post, I’ve been spending a lot of time thinking about the intention of the items that I own, how they serve my perception of myself and how I interact with the world. I’ve been on a half-year-long overhaul of my wardrobe to turn it from a random collection of individual items into something coherent.

The average woman has around 19 pairs of shoes, according to Google, which made me feel better about having 15, which I already felt like was a lot. I’ve struggled with finding comfortable shoes. Due to plantar fasciitis and flat feet, it is rare to find shoes flexible enough to not result in arch cramps but cushioned enough not to bruise my feet. I’ve gone through so many different kinds of shoes, but have finally arrived at a set of shoes that allows me to do what I enjoy, respect dress codes, and fit in with the intention of cohesion in my wardrobe.

Starter pack

These are the set of shoes that would get me through 80% of daily life. A pair of laced black chunky boots, Chuck Taylors, and Birkenstocks. It is basic AF, but I’m covered for all seasons and all casual use cases.

outdoor expansion

These are the shoes that enable me comfortably and safely take on various outdoor activities—hiking boots, basketball shoes, running shoes, and stiffer shoes for cycling. I’ve tried to minimize this before, using a single pair of cross-trainers to encompass all activities. While it satisfied the minimalist intention and they were decent all -around, they weren’t the “right” shoe for anything. I slipped on hikes, my soles would hurt after basketball and running, and they were not durable to the bike pedal pins. While I 4x’d the number of shoes to be able to fit my various use cases, I have more confidence in taking on each activity, which overall contributes quality of life.

social expansion

If I had it my way, I wouldn’t need fancy shoes, but I respect dress codes and want to look appropriately presentable in all contexts. My goal at fancy events is generally to blend in. I have a pair of loafers from my consulting days, one pair of open-toe heels, one pair of closed-toe heels, and leather sandals. These take me from business casual to semi-formal and I don’t expect to ever be invited to black-tie event.

aesthetic expansion

And finally, I have shoes that don’t serve a functional goal, but I really enjoy wearing for aesthetic and comfort purposes. I have a pair of Salomon lifestyle shoes that are very easy to take on and off and work across my wardrobe, my favorite Nike’s designed by Olivia Kim, and chunky black oxfords. I don’t “need” these shoes for anything specifically, but I wear them all the time.


I’ve been applying the same approach the rest of my wardrobe. I have a core wardrobe with different “expansions” based on outdoor activity and fancy dress codes, and items that I have that are for pure enjoyment and self-expression. Splitting the items into different groups helps provide clarity on which items I should expect to use more often than others. For example, at some point I thought about getting rid of my heels because I haven’t wore them in two years. After reflecting on it, I realized that I don’t own heels to wear them constantly, and that they’re for special events that were mostly cancelled during COVID. Likewise, I’ve made the mistake of getting rid of running shoes before because I was in a slump, and then, months later, used the lack of shoes as an excuse not to run. I try to remember now that material possessions can weigh me down mentally, but they are also what enables me to do activities that are rewarding. I’ve been socially anxious about going to events before because I didn’t have the right shoes, and while it’s easy to go overboard, I do realize now that having a intentional wardrobe is very liberating—I don’t have to panic buy a dress because I got invited to a wedding that I was unprepared for, only to never wear it again because I only bought it under time pressure.

I expect that this will mostly conclude my reflections on clothing and fashion for the year. When I started on my closet reorganization and overhaul, I did not expect it to take up so much active thought and energy (and also money). I felt guilt over the consumerist aspect while figuring it out, but ultimately, I think it was worth it to prevent the reactionary cycle of having a full closet but constantly feeling like nothing was right. It made me more susceptible to advertisement, which often preys on the feeling of a new item perfectly filling a gap (sometimes an invented gap). Anything felt like it could fit when I had no sense of what the gaps really were. Now, advertisements rarely trigger any kind of emotional response because I’m self-aware about the gaps and I know exactly what I would want to fill them. Overall, I’m eager to take the energy I’ve spent reading about fabric weight, cuts, color theory, thread count, shoe lasts, and insulation and apply it to other parts of life. But if anyone is looking for a wardrobe redesign, let me know. It was pretty fun.

wearing things, part i

I went back through the history of my blog the other day and reflected on how the contents of my blog have shifted over time. When I started my first WordPress blog in high school, it was a place for me to share unique interests (at that time, film cameras and photography) on the internet because my friends and family weren’t necessarily interested in the intricacies of what I was learning or doing. As I outgrew WordPress (literally, I hit my data limit and couldn’t post anymore), I turned to this space to continue documenting my thoughts, experiences, and interests. The value of this private-public space for me was in the openness I had in sharing myself with the possibility, but not the expectation, that someone I know would end up reading what I put out.

Over time, as it became more clear to me that people were actually reading, I began to be warier of what I shared here. I didn’t want to share thoughts or projects that weren’t “complete”, even though that’s what I had been doing for years before. I wanted to provide bulk updates on things that I was doing as if that could replace actually catching up with people. I shared more about actions and less about thought, perhaps because I thought actions and photos would be more interesting for the casual browser than thousands of words about really random trains of thought. My point is that I’m making a conscious return to treating this space where I entertain my own thoughts, formatted for the occasional friend or stranger to stumble upon and fall into if they find it interesting. Whether you’re a friend, family member, coworker, or stranger—you are free to dive in or wander away.

I’ve been thinking about clothes a lot lately, which is both strange and normal if that makes any sense. I have a very complex relationship with clothing. On one hand, I love a lot of things about clothes. As someone who is fascinated by how things are made, I love understanding and studying materials and fabrics and how small differences in manufacturing can lead to differences in end look, feel, and quality. As a photographer and designer, I can be obsessive about colors, tones, and textures. As a sewing enthusiast, the shape, cut, and drape of materials are details that I am naturally drawn towards. While all of these things are true, I’ve been dissecting a sense of shame that I feel in my admitted interest in fashion.

Why do I feel shame? A lot of people are into fashion. It’s a 3,000 billion dollar global industry. After a couple of months of thinking, I’ve broken my sense of shame down to a couple of factors.
The most immediate sense of self-disappointment probably comes from the fact that clothes are horrible for the environment. I actually wrote pretty extensively about it here. Dressing all the people on earth is a significant contributor to climate change, and as someone who experiences anxiety about climate change and actively cares about improving our global fate, it can be hard to mentally balance the interest and the known environmental cost of that interest. Yes, there are ways of reducing impact by buying second-hand or buying ethically (however you want to define that) produced goods. Not all clothes are made like disposable fast fashion, but at the end of the day, every material thing has an environmental cost.

Beyond the environmental cost, I think there is a part of me that considers interest in material things frivolous. I kind of wish I were only interested in expanding my intellect or doing good in the world as if that would somehow make me a more fulfilled or noble person. But however I may try, I cannot help that my passion for design, appreciation of detail, and aesthetic diligence make me painfully materialistic. Luckily for myself, I channel that energy towards a “quality over quantity” mindset because I also cannot stand visual clutter.

By far my hardest to dissect part of how I feel towards clothes, I’ve realized, stems from a complex journey with my relationship with gender norms in society. For as long as I can remember, I was considered a “tomboy”. I liked doing stereotypically boy things, like playing basketball and baseball, building LEGOs, rolling around in grass and dirt, and generally being quite active. I also really liked playing with stuffed animals and the color pink, but I don’t think that was often highlighted as part of my identity that others perceived. I wore my brother’s hand-me-downs and didn’t care at all. I always had my mom tie up my hair because I didn’t like it in my face. In elementary school, I was made fun of for only wearing sports sweats and hoodies. Kids said I dressed like a homeless person. By middle school, I was choosing my own clothes, which ended up just being straight-fit jeans, a white basketball camp t-shirt, a red hoodie, and white Nikes. I still remember those exact articles of clothing—I liked them because they felt substantial and high quality, and I thought they fit well. Sometime during 6th grade, a girl told me to stop getting my clothes out of the dumpster, which, in retrospect, was pretty traumatizing since I was making active decisions about what to wear. I was made fun of regularly for not having gone through puberty yet. I don’t remember ever actively trying to dress like a boy, but I have vivid memories of feeling exposed and self-conscious about my body when forced into a more “feminine” way of dressing. I hated ballet flats because they made my calves look huge (because they were! from all the hours I spent jumping for basketball!), but they were the only accepted dressy shoe for girls during the 2000s. I hated girl-specific shirts because they had a huge waist-to-hip flare, which didn’t reflect my body at the time and looked awkward and balloon-y. I hated girl’s jeans because they didn’t have real pockets and were completely impractical. I hated patterns of all kinds because it was visually overwhelming, and girls clothes had lots of floral patterns. I couldn’t express it at the time, so my preferences, in the end, were assumed to be because I wanted to dress like a boy, which wasn’t really true either, but boy clothes fitted my straight-shaped body better than whatever was happening at Forever 21, so I went with it.

As peer pressure mounted in middle school and high school, I continued to make attempts at figuring out my “style”, which was pretty much finding one article of clothing I liked and wearing it repeatedly until it fell apart. I wore my basketball team hoodie, black jeans, and Rainbow sandals for probably 3/4 of my time in high school. I honestly just tried to think about clothes as little as possible, while simultaneously recognizing that some items of clothing made me feel great, while others make me want to crawl out of my skin. Junior year, I got asked to Prom and had to figure out something to wear. After hours and hours of stressful shopping with my friends to no avail, I found this borderline inappropriately short, skin-tight red dress that I absolutely did not expect to like, but did. It was made out of a soft but substantial, silky material, and it made me feel confident when I wore it. My mom was alarmed at my dress choice (it is still the shortest, most revealing dress I have ever worn), as was most of the school when I showed up at Prom, but for some reason, it felt right to me. I would say, upon this reflection, that it was from that experience that I realized my distaste towards clothing was not about an aversion to being “feminine”, but about finding a relationship between material and form that fit my perception of myself.

By college, I had a bit of a clothing budget from side hustles and really began searching for a particular style. I bought H&M way more than I want to admit. I gravitated towards t-shirts with interesting details, like mesh panels or atypical cuts, and lots of gray/black/maroon. I ended up with a ton of clothes, most of which I never wore. I still couldn’t put into words what I was looking for at the time, but by end of sophomore year, I had a ton of monochromatic clothes of extremely shoddy quality. After having to pack all of my belongings and move them to a storage unit with a rental car myself in the pouring rain while battling the flu, I decided I couldn’t have so many things anymore. That summer, I discovered minimalist wardrobes and decided I would only wear 3 t-shirts and 1 pair of black jeans. I bought the nicest t-shirts and jeans I could reasonably afford, and I felt great about my clothes every day. It was pretty liberating. I returned to campus and sold the majority of my clothes on Poshmark or gave them to friends. I kept a couple of hoodies and jackets but weaned myself off of fast fashion. I was searching for freedom from the “I have so many clothes and none of it makes me feel good and I don’t know why” kind of feeling, and I solved it by getting rid of most of it and sticking to a formula. It worked. I rode through college wearing the same combination of the same black jeans, 3 t-shirts, skate shoes, hoodies, flannels, and winter jackets. It really was an evolution of my 6th-grade outfit, but by this point, I stopped trying to push the boundaries of what could make me feel good and focused on what did. I did discover at some point that black overalls and Dr. Martens made me feel very comfortable and embraced that.

When the consulting lifestyle rolled around and I realized I would have to have a business wardrobe, I did the same thing. I found one pair of dressy pants that I liked and bought them in 4 colors. I found one blouse that I liked and bought it in 3 colors. The silhouette was exactly the same every time, but I felt fine in it and it worked for the purpose. I was pretty deep in minimalism on YouTube by this point in my life and was obsessed with the idea of living out of one bag and only having one high-quality item of everything I owned. It suited my 300-square-foot studio life and the subsequent world traveling I did before returning home to California. I got really into technical fabrics like merino wool, which promised the ability to stay fresh after multiple days of wear. I became aware of travel-centric brands like Western Rise, Icebreaker, Smartwool, etc. The idea of having one outfit that I could wear indefinitely without drawing attention to myself was highly appealing.

When I moved back home to California, my wardrobe became a mashup of the items I had left behind when I moved to college and everything I had brought back from Boston. It was a pretty weird mashup of items—MIT track jackets, winter coats, merino wool shirts, my consulting outfits, random sweaters and basketball shorts from high school. I bought some clothes to try to fill the gaps — lots of Topo Designs stuff as I was going hiking more often and appreciated the outdoor vibe conceptually. That was pretty much what I’ve been wearing until I started taking a more structured approach to my wardrobe this year and feeling the urge to experiment again.

I’m not quite sure where that urge came from. I thought it was from the suffocation of COVID, but I still work remotely and don’t really go out other than on the occasional weekend. Maybe I feel my mortality and I want to pursue the things that invigorate me, especially something that happens on a daily basis. Maybe after sewing some complex projects, I have an even greater appreciation of quality and the subtleties of designing soft goods. Maybe it’s how I deal with the monotony of living in the suburbs during a pandemic and working from home. Maybe I’ve just finally figured out that I don’t have to be self-conscious about my aesthetic preferences and it’s fine to be into something frivolous. Really, I don’t know.

What I do know is that I now have a much better sense of what kinds of things I like. That includes monochromatic looks, utilitarian pieces, aesthetic minimalism, and material elegance. I really enjoy natural materials like linen and silk. I don’t like loud colors or visually complex articles of clothing because I get bored of them easily. I like chunky shoes because they make everyone’s feet look big so I don’t have to worry about my feet looking particularly big. I like Asian-inspired design, and a lot of Japanese brands appeal to me in their material quality and unique manufacturing. Whenever I have too much from one noticeable brand, I start feeling like a walking advertisement and I don’t like that. I like cropped tops and high-waisted pants because they fit my body proportions well. I like yellow and pink and warm earthy colors. My wardrobe is probably 50/50 on clothes explicitly designed for men vs women. Men’s pants tend to fit me better because the inseam is longer and I don’t have wide hips. Women’s tops tend to fit me better because I have narrow shoulders. I don’t always want to wear black but black suits me because I am a clumsy person and I always spill stuff on my clothes. I like mock necks because they make my neck look shorter, and sometimes I feel like a giraffe. I’ve learned that true minimalism is not for me, because I get bored of wearing the same thing every day and I like having things for specialized purposes, as long as it’s getting used (ie. I don’t want to run in my dress pants. I want my dress pants to be nice and sweat-free and I want my running pants to be good for running). It’s okay if all of my things don’t fit in a suitcase. Ultimately, I just want to be prepared enough to go into any situation and feel confident about how I look, so I can focus on the experience ahead of me rather than fearing that I’ll be uncomfortable or out of place.

After all this talk about clothes, were you expecting photos? I thought about putting some here to visualize my point but decided I had no desire to. Even though I have put an insane amount of time into figuring out a cohesive wardrobe, I genuinely feel like I did it for myself and don’t feel a need to share it publicly. And that’s kind of the point of this wandering post—a reminder to myself that even things that were once traumatizing (like getting dressed) can eventually be an enjoyable part of every day. The key, for me, was lots of reflection and intentionality.

an unofficial guide to making a 40l backpack

First, ask yourself, “Why am I doing this?” If the goal is to save money or have a beautiful end product, turn around now. If you’re thinking, “Ah yes, I love spending a hundred dollars on fabric and ten hours stitching only to realize I’ve made many horrible mistakes that will take even more hours to fix”, then go right ahead. This is the project for you.

step 1 - cutting out the pattern

You cut out the paper pattern first, contemplating how these various shapes will fit together to form a backpack. You try to cut exactly on the lines first, but as your hands begin to cramp, the lines get more jagged. You try to keep everything nicely folded and labeled, but the awkward shapes are difficult to store neatly, and they end up sitting on your desk for a couple of weeks.

step 2 - cutting out the fabric pieces from the paper pattern

This involves laying out the paper pieces on top of the various fabrics. If you’re legit, you might have a cutting table. Or else, this involves playing Twister on the floor and using your feet to hold the large pattern pieces as you maneuver a tiny cutting mat behind your rotary cutter. It might involve cutting your fingers a few times and needing several alcohol wipes and bandaids. It might also involve forgetting to mirror the shape you are cutting, and ending up with 4 left shoulder strap pieces and 0 right should strap pieces. It’s fine.

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step 2.5 (optional) - making a plastic framesheet

If you’re naively ambitious, you go to Home Depot to buy an aluminum flat bar and a sheet of HDPE plastic, thinking that an aluminum stay and plastic frame sheet will make your bag so much more comfortable. Perhaps you realize you need to sew a piece of webbing onto the plastic to hold the flat bar in the right position, so you spend two hours hand-cranking a 1959 sewing machine through plastic to get the sleeve in place. Then, you hacksaw the aluminum stay to the right length and bend it into the precise shape of your spine. You realize the sharp edges of the aluminum bar catch on the webbing, so you sand all the corners before it finally slides in.

step 3 - making padded backpack straps

This is really just forcefully stuffing padding into a sleeve and hoping it comes out like a strap.

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step 4 - putting the rest together

This part is fun. You read instructions with lines like:

SS BTM edges of ​BCK BTM PANEL INT​ to ​BCK BTM PANEL EXT ​WS to WS. TO, TS, SS in SA

…and wonder why the instructions were written as a text algorithm and not as a series of photos. You will sew things inside out, upside down, and misaligned. You spend so much time ripping out wrong seams that you develop a headache from eye strain, but the sweet thought of completing a project is so enticing that you’ll keep seam ripping and putting pieces together. Eventually, it’s done. On the last step, you realize that all of your buckles were sewn on backwards. Right as you near the finish line, you have to rip out six more seams and resew them properly. And then you have a backpack! You spend the rest of your day cleaning fabric scraps and thread out of every conceivable part of your house. The satisfaction of making your own backpack just barely outweighs the memory of cuts, eyestrain, and headaches.

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IMG_0039.jpeg

And that’s it! You’ll have a decently functional backpack that cost probably cost 3 times as much as one made my an actual company when you take into account the damage to your eyesight, your dignity, and your time. However, when an imaginary person comes up to you and says “Yo, sweet bag!” you can say, “Thanks, I made it myself.”

guest post by max: lifecycle of a wildfire (part 1)

Living in California this year has been filled with all of nature’s torments. I haven’t been able to see friends because of COVID-19. Up until this past weekend, I hadn't gone outside all month because of awful wildfire smoke (it’s a relief to just crack open a window). And to top it all off, I’ve finally experienced my first earthquake (actually the first two!).

And with so much time indoors, I’ve dug into the only one of those disasters that has become regular, wildfires. I’ve read countless articles about each of the latest fires: Bobcat, SCU Lightning Complex, Glass, the list goes on. But these update articles feel like getting score updates to a sport that I don’t know the rules of. What does 15% containment mean for a fire? How does CalFire know when there’s a red flag warning in an area? How dangerous is a red flag warning? How quickly will a fire spread?

It’s with these questions in mind that I started writing this article. I always loved writing profiles when I was involved in high school journalism. Painting a portrait of a person with words, that’s how I imagined a profile. Being able to really tell a story, from start to end. That’s what I want to do with wildfires. That’s the idea, anyway. Tell the story of a wildfire, one wildfire, from start to finish.

With that goal in mind, I’ve pieced together the story of one wildfire, the Mendocino Fire Complex in 2018. I use that story to illustrate the life and death of wildfires in general. I try to answer the original questions I had, and a few more. My plan is to do it in three parts: ignition, spread, and containment. That plan may change as I find more interesting tidbits to share, but that’s the rough shape I have in mind now.

So why the Mendocino Fire? Well, up until just a couple of months ago, the Mendocino Fire Complex burned an at-the-time record 459,000 acres and lasted from July 27 to Sept 18 (53 days). The fire destroyed 257 structures, caused 257 million dollars in damages, and required 201 million dollars in fire suppression costs. While the Mendocino Fire Complex was giant for its time, it is only 35 miles away from the currently burning August Complex, also in Mendocino County, which is the newest largest California fire on record at over a million acres. It holds the infamous title of being the first and only California fire to grow larger than a million acres in recorded history.

Ignition

To set the scene, the Mendocino fire complex was actually two nearby fires, with the first one being the Ranch fire that started on July 27, 2018 at 12:05, and the second River fire starting about an hour after that. By the next morning, the two fires had already grown to nearly 10,000 acres and had destroyed two structures. The map below shows the extent of the spread.

https://wildfiretoday.com/2018/07/28/ranch-and-river-fires-burn-thousands-of-acres-in-mendocino-county/?hilite=%27mendocino%27

https://wildfiretoday.com/2018/07/28/ranch-and-river-fires-burn-thousands-of-acres-in-mendocino-county/?hilite=%27mendocino%27

The two fires flanked the nearby town of Ukiah, with the Ranch fire to the north east and the River Fire to the south east. These fires were only about 8 miles away. The Mendocino County Sheriff’s office ordered mandatory evacuations pretty much immediately. The image below was the view from Ukiah the morning after the fire started.

https://www.lakeconews.com/index.php/news/57113-acreage-for-ranch-river-fires-grows-overnight

https://www.lakeconews.com/index.php/news/57113-acreage-for-ranch-river-fires-grows-overnight


The crazy part of this looming disaster was the ignition source: the Ranch Fire started from a spark caused by a resident hammering a concrete stake into a wasp’s nest. The resident was identified by the NYT, based on public records, as Glenn Kile, a heavy equipment operator turned rancher in his mid-50s. I found the official narrative from the CalFire incident report fascinating, so here it is verbatim:

[Kile] said he was putting up a shade cloth for the above ground water tanks located up the hill from his residence. He said the shade cloth blew down sometime last year and he wanted to put it back up as a barrier from the sun. He said he was in the process of putting it up when he agitated an underground yellow jacket's nest. [Kile] said he is allergic to bees and waited for the yellow jackets to stop swarming. Once they did, he quickly hammered a 24-inch concrete stake into the ground to plug the hole. He said he used a claw hammer and drove the concrete stake 10 to 12 inches into the ground. [Kile] said he smelled smoke and saw a vegetation fire next to where he was working. [Kile] said the fire was 2 feet by 2 feet in size when he first saw it. He said the fire started in grass he estimated to be 2 to 3 feet in height. He said the vegetation fire moved quickly to the shade cloth located on the ground a few feet away. [Kile] grabbed a shovel and tried to extinguish the fire, but said the ground was so hard it was difficult to get enough dirt to be effective. [Kile] said he tried to use a black polyurethane waterline next to the water tanks to extinguish the fire, but the line kinked from the heat of the fire and restricted the waterflow. [Kile] then tried to use a 1½ inch PVC water line connected to the water tanks, but was unable to get enough water pressure to reach the fire. [Kile] said he unhooked the trailer from his four-wheeler and tried to get in front of the fire traveling uphill from the water tanks. He said in the process, he lost control of his four wheeler and had to jump off. The four-wheeler rolled downhill lodging itself between the water tanks and a cut bank. [Kile] said he ran downhill to his residence and called 911 to report the fire. He then turned on the water pump near his residence to supply the water tanks to help support the incoming fire suppression resources. At the time of the interview, [Kile] was suffering from what appeared to be smoke inhalation and heat exhaustion. [Kile] refused an ambulance and medical treatment. 

Imagine the fear of going from fighting a wasp’s nest to fighting a fire. Imagine the frenzied attempt at putting out a fire, starting with a shovel in hard, baked dirt, to furiously attempting to start a waterline, to driving, then crashing, a 4 wheeler. Ultimately, Kile was found to be not negligent, though still responsible. It’s clear that it doesn’t take much to start a fire in the California grasslands.

The Mendocino Fire’s ignition source highlights a key wildfire concept called the probability of ignition, which is how likely a spark will ignite if it lands on potential fuels, like, in this case, dry grass. The four factors in this determination are shading percentage, temperature without humidity, the percentage of moisture in the fuel, and the “fineness” of a fuel. This data is summarized in the table below.

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Looking back on historical weather data, on July 27, 2018 in Potter Valley, CA (near the fire), the low was 56 degrees F and the high was a scorching 107 degree F. To add on top of that, it hadn’t rained at all the entire month of July, and the grass had been drying out in the sun all summer, classifying it as a “fine dead fuel”. These conditions certainly put the probability of ignition of Kiles’ spark from a concrete stake into a wasp’s nest in the 70% plus range.

Another metric that tries to capture this same idea of fire danger is the Fire Potential Index (FPI). The FPI is really a measure of moisture levels, accounting for how flammable different kinds of fuel are at different moisture levels, and what percent of the vegetation is dead. The FPI is a value between 1 and 100, where 100 indicates the highest chance of starting a fire (very low moisture, and a lot of dead vegetation).

Using satellites, the greenness of an area is used to estimate the moisture level. Moisture levels are measured by comparing the dead fuel moisture, the moisture of dead grass / trees, to the moisture of extinction, the moisture level needed to stop a fire from spreading. The lower this ratio, the more likely a fire can start. The moisture of extinction varies by the type of fuel: grasses tend to have the lowest moisture of extinction, at around 15 percent, while trees are generally higher, in the 25 to 30 percent range.

The great part of the FPI is that the USGS has calculated it for every square kilometer of the US since 2001. If you want to find your neighborhood’s FPI, you can go here: https://firedanger.cr.usgs.gov/viewer/index.html and enter in your home address. The screenshot below shows the FPI in the area surrounding Ukiah on the day the fire started, with the pin indicating where Ukiah is located.

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Scroll up and compare this to the map of the wildfire’s spread one day after the fire started, and you’ll see that the fire started in a sea of red. Conditions could not have been more ideal for a large wildfire. The solid red block to the east of the map also explains why the fire would expand eastward, in addition to the fire fighting resources that protected Ukiah and surrounding communities.

The conditions shown here also represent large parts of California’s grasslands. Limited rain during the summer and high temperatures (which are becoming more extreme weather due to climate change) drive up the probability of ignition and the fire potential. Add to this tinderbox the expansion of communities near wildland areas, and there’s a near certainty of human-caused fires spreading throughout the state.